We wish you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous Deepawali. Samvat 2070 has been a great year for investors and the future looks equally promising.
Lately, we haven’t been posting much because of the guidelines of SEBI on research analysts. The guidelines come at a needed stage as there is a lot of volatility and mis-selling by vested interests which cause harm to retail investors.
We are not sure about the impact of the guidelines on the blogs and forums and await for more clarity on rules and compliances.
Herewith, we are NOT expressing any opinion on any of the stocks. We are just providing an update on the quarterly numbers of stocks discussed earlier:
Shilpa Medicare: We attended the company’s AGM last month. The management is focused on Oncology space -a sector which requires a very long term vision. It takes a planning of at-least 6-8 years to be able to deliver the right product at the right time. Shilpa has been building a pipeline which is expected to bear fruits in over the next 2-3 years. (Detailed of the company have been discussed in earlier posts).
Kitex Garments: The company has declared an excellent Q2FY15 result. It is hard to find companies with such a good profitability, growth and leadership in niche segment. We would recommend our readers to listen to the company’ conference call.
Avanti Feeds: It is interesting to see Malabar India Fund take 1%+ stake in Avanti Feeds as per the latest shareholding pattern filed by the company. As per the industry articles, the segment continues to perform well. The recent cyclone in the state of AP and Orissa has not caused much damage to the shrimp industry.
Once again, we wish all our friends and their families a very Happy & Prosperous Deepawali.
First of all a heartiest congratulations to everyone for giving such a clear mandate. It was the need of the hour for our country and society to have a better and stable government. It is heartening to see that this time the election has been won on the agenda of development. From inaction and scams, lets hope the economy gets back on track.
The markets have witnessed a major change and upliftment in its mood over last few weeks. Those who were invested from before must be enjoying the gains. One should be careful, however, to not get carried away. These broad rallies are very useful for portfolio reconstruction – i.e. getting out of ideas or mistakes where the conviction levels were not high and moving into companies with a better clarity and visibility.
Lately, we have not been posting much because the companies we have discussed earlier are performing quite well fundamentally and continuing to grow consistently. We feel they still have a good long term potential.
Brief updates on our existing ideas:
Astral Poly – While the company continues to deliver an expected growth of about 30%, the stock keeps surprising everyone through a regular re-rating. Though the stock does trade at high valuations now, we recommend reading this article for some insights about the company’s high quality of business, management and growth prospects going forward.
Ajanta Pharma – Ajanta has once again come up with an excellent quarter – it continues to surprise everyone with the quality of its numbers. Do see their latest presentation, which gives a lot of insight on the brands they own and other qualitative aspects of their business. The slide number 14 is very interesting and is one of the key reasons behind their good growth and superior margins.
Its good to see a consistent increase in the gross block of the company. Recently the company has raised 75 Cr by way of preferential allotment to an FII. The company has been developing a product pipeline over the last 3-4 years; we expect the new facilities and products to give a revenue growth of 25-30%+ CAGR over the coming years.
Avanti Feeds – The company continues to maintain high growth rates with a revenue growth of 75% in 2014. Its amazing to see that the company has grown from just 72 Cr turnover in 2009 to 1135 Cr in 2014. The balance sheet is quite healthy with a debt of just 50 Crores.
Particulars
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% CAGR
Turnover
72.51
96.16
199.62
393.41
648.04
1131.61
98.76%
NP
-8.59
-1.20
3.42
28.06
30.20
69.75
EPS
-10.74
-1.50
4.28
30.90
33.26
76.82
As per a recent article on the company, the company has recently set up a 85,000 tonne plant in addition to its capacity of 1,40,000 tonnes. With the industry continuing to do very well, it is expected that Avanti may again deliver high growth of 30-50% for the coming year FY15.
Its also good to see promoters buying over 1.7 lac shares since 1st April, 2014.
*Caution: Shrimp industry is a high risk industry, often affected by shrimp diseases and natural calamities.
Kitex Garments – We visited the AGM of the company and it was a superb experience. Its one of the those extra-ordinary entrepreneurship stories where a person has created a great company from scratch, all in 15-20 years.
Shareholders awarding Mr. Sabu for the excellent performance
Today, KGL is the third largest infant garments manufacturer in the world and supplying to some of the best names in the world including Gerber, ToysRus and Carter. They are known for manufacturing the best quality garments. Compared to a normal textile industry, the infant’s garment industry does not have a high competition. Infants can be allergic to dyes and chemicals, or chew the buttons – thus Kitex uses the best of the dyes and yarns. They also invest heavily into social compliances and provide an air-conditioned factory, free food and free stay to almost 9000 workers, of which 90% are females. The company had done a recent capex – it aims to be the biggest in the world in this year and eventually double the current size in 3-4 years.
Though the stock has had a sharp run up in recent times, we feel that it is one high quality business and should do well over a long term.
GRP – The company continues to face tough times. We were expecting the things to get better with the improving turnover, but this quarter has been a disappointment. Till the previous quarter, the issue was underutilization of capacity and problems at the new plant set up; hence we had a hope of better times as and when the economy improves. During the last quarter, however, the raw material cost as a percentage of total cost has increased substantially and is now a new cause of worry. We have reduced some exposure (by about 15-20%) and look forward for an update at the company’s upcoming AGM.
Oriental Carbon – After a long wait, the company has posted a good set of numbers. One of the big positives is the increase in dividend from Rs 5 last year to Rs 7 this year. The stock is trading at 5 times earnings with a price to book value of 1.
Amongst the new ideas, we are working on Anuh Pharma these days. The latest quarterly numbers hint an improvement in the company’s operations. From being a general bulk drug company, the company seems to be making efforts on R&D and entering regulated markets. The negatives are – 1. the group has several other unlisted companies which are also into pharmaceutical business and 2. the listed company has had a dull past.
We look forward to a strong budget over the next month. Happy investing!
“management’s indifference and shareholder negligence both worked on Warren’s behalf, for the fewer folks came to the show, the more valuable would be whatever knowledge he could wrest from the company.” – from The Snowball where WB talks on the importance of attending AGMs
There is a lot of fear in the markets and several stocks in the mid and small cap space are having a free fall. These are the great times to focus and research more on the companies to find undervalued gems.
Last month, we toured South India to attend a few AGMs. We visited Avanti Feeds, Shilpa Medicare and Swelect Energy. The meetings were good and the companies seem well placed. It is often concerning to watch a few shareholders holding nominal quantities and coming over for free gifts and snacks. Despite good arrangements and the good work by the management, these shareholders often sabotage the proceedings. We need to fix this, otherwise the promoters will never treat the minorities properly. Probably having a video conferencing of AGMs may help.
Brief updates from above meetings:
Avanti Feeds: We have discussed the company many times in past and the stock has performed well too. The industry continues to see high growth rates of 30%+ since the adoption of the new shrimp specie – Vannamei. The company is superbly placed in its sector (due to the support of TUF) and ranks among the top. The management seemed quite honest, hard working and conservative. They were one of the first to understand the potential of the Vannamei specie in India and took various steps to get it introduced. The company has grown from a turnover of just 100 Cr in 2009 to 650 Cr in 2013. Avanti seems well placed as the industry is expected to remain on a good growth path for the next few years. Continue reading Updates from quarterly results and AGMs
A brief update on some of our stocks discussed before:
Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo (BSE Code – 532842, NSE Code – SRHHYPOLTD): We had discussed about the company’s expansion plants earlier. In the September quarter, the company has reported a good growth of 27% in turnover and the stock looks quite cheap, if it is able to maintain this growth in up-coming quarters (which is should cause of the recent expansion).
The company is operating in a niche area of water treatment chemical – Calcium Hypochloride and it’s the only Indian company doing this work. The company has healthy operating margins of about 19-20% and the business requires little working capital. The valuations seem quite attractive as the stock is trading at a PE of just 3.5 times and the Price to Book Value of only 0.50. We feel it’s a value pick at these levels.
Negative – The promoters have been increasing stake by doing preferential allotment and merging of group companies.
Shilpa Medicare: The company has got funding from Barring Equity PE Fund. The co will be allotting 5 Lac warrants to promoters and 20 Lac shares to the PE Fund @ Rs 350/share. This is a major positive for the co in the long run and fundamentals will improve majorly.
Harrison Malayalam: We had discussed about the company a few days back. The company has come out with poor nos and the stock is down to 118 levels. We feel the intrinsic value of this company is much higher than the current M Cap of the company. Few reasons to substantiate our view:
1. The company has 57,800 acres of plantations. The value today would be multiple times higher than the Current MCap of just 210 Cr. Have a look at the 10 yr financial data of the company. in 2005, the co had sold 674 Hectares of one of its Rubber Estate and had got 33 Cr as other income. Similarly in 2006. the co had sold about 916 Hectares of another rubber estate and got 63 Cr as other income.
2. The asset value of the estates must have almost doubled since 2005. As of 2009, the company has about 25,000 Hectares of plantations. So if one extrapolates the above valuation, the real value of their assets would be huge.
3. Over the years the company has been able to reduce the labour and mechanize it’s plantations.
4. As Rubber & Tea prices are rising, logically the co should be making money.
5. The record date for the demerger should be announced in next few days.
Manjushree Technopack: We had earlier recommended MT at about Rs 32 here. The company has posted excellent Q1 numbers. MT is a proxy play to the domestic consumption story and the co should continue doing well. We expect the company co close FY 2011 with 195-200 Cr turnover and close to 15 Cr of NP. The stock should continue to do well.
Gujarat Reclaim Rubber: The co has posted a very good Q1. We expect the company to come out with better nos going ahead and the stock should do very well. The company had been featured in the latest “Tyre Asia” magazine and the article is a must read.
Balkrishna Industries: BKT continues to do well. The company has posted a good Q1 when other tyres cos suffered heavily on the margins side. The reason for good performance is the niche area the company is operating in. As per Q1 con-call of the co, the updates are:
1. The outlook is very positive. The co is already operating at 100% capacity and needs more capacity to fulfill additional demand.
2. Co is witnessing very strong growth in US markets. Share of EU has come down to about 55% from 70% earlier.
3. Co is adding about 20% capacity in next 1 year. At a cost of about 150 Cr
4. Co is undertaking a major expansion of about 900 Cr over the next 2 years. Post this the capacity of the company will get more than doubled.
5. Co wants to be a $ 1 Bln turnover company by 2015.
We feel that BKT is an excellent long term opportunity.
Sunflag Iron: As expected, the co continues to do very well. The promoters have been buying every other day from the open market. The stock is available at less than 5 PE and 1.2 times BV.
Usually most of our discussed stocks are mid-caps whose merits are generally unknown to the masses. Whenever there is coverage of these stocks by Media…they get due attention and often do well. Some of our stocks got wide coverage in last few days:
1. Asian Hotels:
Will Asian Hotels’ shareholders gain after its demerger into three separate companies? Recently, the company split into three different entities — Asian Hotels (North), Asian Hotels (West) and the Asian Hotels (East). Right now, only Asian Hotels (North) is being traded on stock exchanges, and going by its current market capitalisation, the gains to shareholders look uncertain. The other companies are awaiting regulatory approvals to list next month
We had covered the demerger story at our blog here and covered the demerger impact here. One of the demerged company – Asian Hotels (N) has already got listed and given better than expected returns.
Our View: The above economic times article is very well highlighting the reasons why this demerger is creating value. We do expect the other to companies to list well and provide better gains than the calculations done at our blog earlier.
2. Shilpa Medicare:
The bulls have taken fancy to the Shilpa Medicare — a small-sized pharma company. Its price made a record intra-day high of Rs 362.50 on Tuesday after rising by more than eight times over the past one year. News of financial institutions buying a small stake in the company along with a dilution by the promoters has fuelled the recent rally in the stock.
We have covered Shilpa Medicare several times at our blog. Initially it was covered at Rs 80 here.
Our View: As the article points out – the stock is not cheap, yes we agree but we also believe that good stocks don’t trade cheap 🙂 It would be tough to find a company having leadership position in Oncology segment, having operating margins of 30%+, growing at 45% CAGR available at less than 20 times PE. Infact if one takes a close look at last two quarterly nos of the company, the stock is trading at just 15-16 times annualised earnings.
Also if one increases the outlook to more than 1-2 years, the company has a good future. They are putting up new capacities and plan to double their turnover in 2 years.
3. Jaihind Projects:
We had first covered this company at our blog at about Rs 90 here. The stock has done exceeding well and has created a new all time high of 265 today. The company has been getting coverage on various business channels and people our discovering the underlying story.
4. Balkrishna Industries (Update):
Balkrishna Industries Limited (BKT) specialises in the production of tyres for off-road applications, including agriculture, industry & construction, earthmoving equipment, ATV and lawn & garden vehicles. http://www.tyrepress.com/News/77/19257.html
Our View: This is one company which has a fantastic track record and aims to be a 1 billion dollar company by 2015, which is quite possible looking at the business model of this company. In long run, the stock can give superb returns if they continue to grow as per their plans.
We believe that for better wealth creation investors should keep looking for undervalued and growth oriented stocks and invest in them at an early stage. This is the place where maximum wealth is created. We have been continuously working on this area. Would request the readers to keep exchanging ideas and keep spreading the logics to other investors.
Shilpa Medicare has made a new high at 345 today. We had initially discussed the stock on our blog here on 26th July, 2009 when the price was Rs 80. Hence the stock has given a gain of 331% in less than 1 year :). The stock is now a 10 bagger from March lows.
The stock has been witnessing a lot of fund action, Reliance Capital has bought 4.50 lac shares yesterday @ 285. Earlier ICICI Prudential had bought 9 lac shares.
The interest in the stock is logical due to the fantastic financial performance of the company and the bright prospects ahead. The Oncology business will remain to be the fastest growing segment for next 4-5 years and Shilpa is the largest standalone (not for captive use) Oncology API manufacturer in India. The company targets to be a 500 Cr turnover company in next 2 years.
Such successes are possible only due to active participation, discussion and feedback of our readers, investors and friends. Look forward to you support and views.
“Its’ the work on your desk…It’s the work on your desk. Do well with what you already have and more will come in.” – Charlie Munger
Dear Friends,
This post is to bring an update and review of all the stocks discussed till now.
Performance till now:
S.NO
SCRIP NAME
Date of Recommendation
Price of Recommendation
CMP
Percentage Returns
Remarks
1
CHI Investment
11-05-2009
25
45
80.00
Exit was advised earlier at higher price
2
Shilpa Medicare
26-07-2009
93
239
156.99
Hold
3
Jaihind Projects
02-08-2009
95
173
82.11
Hold
4
Albert David
25-08-2009
75
119
58.67
Book partial profits
5
Siemens Healthcare
14-09-2009
1100
1270
15.45
Exit was advised earlier
6
Ahlcon Parentals
28-09-2009
37
47
27.03
Hold
7
Fresenius Kabi
28-09-2009
80
120
50.00
Book partial profits
8
Majestic Auto
22-10-2009
68
62
-8.82
Hold
9
Suprajit Eng
26-10-2009
90
155
72.22
Hold
10
IST Ltd
16-11-2009
100
140
40.00
Buy
11
Manjushree Technopack
18-11-2009
32
46
43.75
Hold
12
Asian Hotels
01-12-2009
425
508
19.53
Buy on declines
Individual Updates:
1. Shilpa Medicare: This stock has been a wealth-creater. The company has yet again posted excellent Q3 nos. Based on the same, the future looks bright and the stock is getting the attention of bigger investors (Read: ICICI Prudential mutual fund 🙂 ). On repeat or better financial performance, the stock has potential to reach 350 levels.
2. Jaihind Projects: The company has been doing well. As per a recent ET article, the co has to complete major projects by mid this year. One should continue to hold.
3. Albert David: This stock was picked as more of a value pick to park idle funds. One can consider booking partial profits.
4. Suprajit Engineering: The company has come out with excellent Q3 nos. The stock has also done well. To reward the shareholders, the management has proposed 45% interim dividend, 1:1 bonus and stock split. Though a bit aggressive than required, all these developments can take the stock to higher levels.
5. IST Ltd: As per the recent updates, the construction activities are going at good pace and co has built almost 10 lac sq ft of space. Leasing out of the same in due time will be a very positive development. If things keep going as per the plans, the stock has all the potentials of becoming a multi-bagger.
6. Manjushree Technopack: We have been providing updates in other threads.
7. Asian Hotels: Usually demergers create lot of shareholder wealth. So one should remain invested and look forward to buying on declines.
We are trying to bring some new picks from the Q3 nos. In the meanwhile some of my other favourite cos have come out with very good numbers and investors can consider them for investing: Balkrishna Industries & Poly Medicure.
The loss in the subsidiary has narrowed down substantially.
The interest cost has started reducing despite the company being in expansion mode.
I expect the company to continue posting such healthy nos and should better out in coming quarters. The stock has all the potential to move to the next orbit of Rs 250-300 levels.
