First of all a heartiest congratulations to everyone for giving such a clear mandate. It was the need of the hour for our country and society to have a better and stable government. It is heartening to see that this time the election has been won on the agenda of development. From inaction and scams, lets hope the economy gets back on track.
The markets have witnessed a major change and upliftment in its mood over last few weeks. Those who were invested from before must be enjoying the gains. One should be careful, however, to not get carried away. These broad rallies are very useful for portfolio reconstruction – i.e. getting out of ideas or mistakes where the conviction levels were not high and moving into companies with a better clarity and visibility.
Lately, we have not been posting much because the companies we have discussed earlier are performing quite well fundamentally and continuing to grow consistently. We feel they still have a good long term potential.
Brief updates on our existing ideas:
Astral Poly – While the company continues to deliver an expected growth of about 30%, the stock keeps surprising everyone through a regular re-rating. Though the stock does trade at high valuations now, we recommend reading this article for some insights about the company’s high quality of business, management and growth prospects going forward.
Ajanta Pharma – Ajanta has once again come up with an excellent quarter – it continues to surprise everyone with the quality of its numbers. Do see their latest presentation, which gives a lot of insight on the brands they own and other qualitative aspects of their business. The slide number 14 is very interesting and is one of the key reasons behind their good growth and superior margins.
Shilpa Medicare – Shilpa Medicare too has reported a good quarter:
| Particulars | 2013 | 2014 | % Change |
| Turnover | 328.19 | 527.37 | 60.69% |
| EBIDT | 69.82 | 126.57 | 81.28% |
| NP | 46.06 | 80.86 | 75.55% |
| EPS | 12.49 | 21.98 |
Its good to see a consistent increase in the gross block of the company. Recently the company has raised 75 Cr by way of preferential allotment to an FII. The company has been developing a product pipeline over the last 3-4 years; we expect the new facilities and products to give a revenue growth of 25-30%+ CAGR over the coming years.
Avanti Feeds – The company continues to maintain high growth rates with a revenue growth of 75% in 2014. Its amazing to see that the company has grown from just 72 Cr turnover in 2009 to 1135 Cr in 2014. The balance sheet is quite healthy with a debt of just 50 Crores.
| Particulars | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | % CAGR |
| Turnover | 72.51 | 96.16 | 199.62 | 393.41 | 648.04 | 1131.61 | 98.76% |
| NP | -8.59 | -1.20 | 3.42 | 28.06 | 30.20 | 69.75 | |
| EPS | -10.74 | -1.50 | 4.28 | 30.90 | 33.26 | 76.82 |
As per a recent article on the company, the company has recently set up a 85,000 tonne plant in addition to its capacity of 1,40,000 tonnes. With the industry continuing to do very well, it is expected that Avanti may again deliver high growth of 30-50% for the coming year FY15.
Its also good to see promoters buying over 1.7 lac shares since 1st April, 2014.
*Caution: Shrimp industry is a high risk industry, often affected by shrimp diseases and natural calamities.
Kitex Garments – We visited the AGM of the company and it was a superb experience. Its one of the those extra-ordinary entrepreneurship stories where a person has created a great company from scratch, all in 15-20 years.
Today, KGL is the third largest infant garments manufacturer in the world and supplying to some of the best names in the world including Gerber, ToysRus and Carter. They are known for manufacturing the best quality garments. Compared to a normal textile industry, the infant’s garment industry does not have a high competition. Infants can be allergic to dyes and chemicals, or chew the buttons – thus Kitex uses the best of the dyes and yarns. They also invest heavily into social compliances and provide an air-conditioned factory, free food and free stay to almost 9000 workers, of which 90% are females. The company had done a recent capex – it aims to be the biggest in the world in this year and eventually double the current size in 3-4 years.
Though the stock has had a sharp run up in recent times, we feel that it is one high quality business and should do well over a long term.
GRP – The company continues to face tough times. We were expecting the things to get better with the improving turnover, but this quarter has been a disappointment. Till the previous quarter, the issue was underutilization of capacity and problems at the new plant set up; hence we had a hope of better times as and when the economy improves. During the last quarter, however, the raw material cost as a percentage of total cost has increased substantially and is now a new cause of worry. We have reduced some exposure (by about 15-20%) and look forward for an update at the company’s upcoming AGM.
Oriental Carbon – After a long wait, the company has posted a good set of numbers. One of the big positives is the increase in dividend from Rs 5 last year to Rs 7 this year. The stock is trading at 5 times earnings with a price to book value of 1.
Amongst the new ideas, we are working on Anuh Pharma these days. The latest quarterly numbers hint an improvement in the company’s operations. From being a general bulk drug company, the company seems to be making efforts on R&D and entering regulated markets. The negatives are – 1. the group has several other unlisted companies which are also into pharmaceutical business and 2. the listed company has had a dull past.
We look forward to a strong budget over the next month. Happy investing!
