Smruthi Organics Ltd. – BSE Code: 590046

We have been tracking this company for few years and we like the way the company has performed in the last 2-3 years and yet remains ignored and undervalued. We feel it’s a good pharma company to make a part of portfolio.

Smruthi Organics is a small sized pharma company based out of Solapur, engaged in manufacturing of APIs, drug intermediates, specialty chemicals & contract manufacturing. Continue reading Smruthi Organics Ltd. – BSE Code: 590046

Poly Medicure – Dream Run

We had discussed about Poly Medicure and their plans to become a major global Medical Disposable player. The article highlighted about their expansion plans ahead and target to be a 300-400 Cr company by 2013. We had discussed the stock @ Rs 100 (adjusted 1:1 bonus) and the stock price has tripled to Rs 315 in just 10 months!!

So what does the stock hold for existing investors?

The company is expected to post a turnover of 170 Cr+ this year with an EPS of 18-20.

As the stock has given multi-bagger returns and valuations are not cheap anymore, one should do partial profit booking at these levels and explore our other ideas. For long term perspective, the stock still holds value as the company is a leader in the healthcare field where the potential is unlimited. Its not easy to find such good companies again. The company is on a growth path and has lined up several expansions.

We have been holding this stock for few years and had lot of faith on the future potential of the company and quality of management. Few important learning from this investment:

  • Look for companies whose end product has ever increasing demand. In the case of Poly, the medical disposable space has a great future.
  • Look at crucial ratios like – High Operating margins, consistent growth, High ROCE. Poly has had very good operating margins in the range of 18-20%, consistent growth of 25-30% and consistent ROCE of 25%+ hence the company has been able to scale up quickly majorly from internal accruals.
  • Look for young, dynamic and ambitious management.
  • Buying into a quality company at cheap valuations is a sure shot multi-bagger thing 😀

Three cheers for Shilpa Medicare

celebration

Shilpa Medicare has made a new high at 345 today. We had initially discussed the stock on our blog here on 26th July, 2009 when the price was Rs 80. Hence the stock has given a gain of 331% in less than 1 year :). The stock is now a 10 bagger from March lows.

The stock has been witnessing a lot of fund action, Reliance Capital has bought 4.50 lac shares yesterday @ 285. Earlier ICICI Prudential had bought 9 lac shares.

The interest in the stock is logical due to the fantastic financial performance of the company and the bright prospects ahead. The Oncology business will remain to be the fastest growing segment for next 4-5 years and Shilpa is the largest standalone (not for captive use) Oncology API manufacturer in India. The company targets to be a 500 Cr turnover company in next 2 years.

Such successes are possible only due to active participation, discussion and feedback of our readers, investors and friends. Look forward to you support and views.

Regards,

Poly Medicure – Aiming to global medical devices market

“In the next three to five years, our focus will be on safety devices market. We are expecting our revenues to grow from Rs 135 crore to Rs 300 to 400 crore by 2013” – Rishi Baid, executive director, Poly Medicure Ltd

We recently discussed about Poly Medicure which is one of the biggest exporter of IV Safety Cannulae and other healthcare disposable products. Now it is looking to expand in global markets too and targeting a 10% global market share.

If the company is able to do a turnover of even 165-170 Cr next year, the stock is trading at just 5-6 times FY11 expected earnings.

Pharmabiz discusses about the talks with management:

The New Delhi-based Poly Medicure Pvt Ltd, manufacturer and supplier of medical devices and disposables, is planning to invest Rs 100 crore by 2013 to expand its presence in overseas market with a thrust on safety medical devices and outsourcing manufacturing and research activities.

The company, which currently has almost 75 per cent of its total Rs 135 crore revenue from exporting products to more than 80 countries including US and Europe, is planning to invest around Rs 100 crore within 2013 to increase its presence in global market and to explore the potential of outsourcing market, said Rishi Baid, executive director, Poly Medicure Ltd. The company is also mulling on acquiring a medical devices company with research and development focus in US, by spending around USD 20 to 30 million.

“In the next three to five years, our focus will be on safety devices market. We are expecting our revenues to grow from Rs 135 crore to Rs 300 to 400 crore by 2013,” Baid averred. The target for the financial year 2010-2011 is fixed at Rs 175 to 200 crore.

The company sells its safety device products to almost 30 countries including South America and Middle East. The safety devices portfolio is expected to increase to 30 to 40 per cent of its revenue in next five years, from a meager eight per cent reported at present, he added.

Poly Medicure is currently operating on selected medical devices and disposables segment, which has a potential up to Rs 1000 crore and currently has five per cent market share. Through the capacity expansion, the company is targeting to bag 10 per cent of the market share by 2012.

Poly Medicure

P/E Comparison

Poly Medicure is one of our favourite small cap stock which has carved out a niche for itself and has grown well over the last few years.

The company is the one of the biggest exporter of IV Safety Cannulae and other healthcare disposable products. This business segment is always growing and with development of better medical facilities, this segment should grow faster.

Few worthy points:

  • The company has grown at a CAGR (Compounded annual growth rate) of 30.75% over last 10 years. (From turnover of 10 Cr in FY 2000 to 112.22 Cr turnover in FY 2009)
  • The company is expected to grow at 20% YOY (Year on year) for next 2-3 years. This year the company is expected to do a turnover of 135 Cr with a net profit of 15 Cr, thus implying an EPS of 27.
  • The CMP of 200 discounts the immediate EPS of 27 by just 7.5 times.

The last two quarters have been very good due to the backward integration efforts of the company done in the last few years and hence the company may be able to sustain operating margins around 20%.

Recent Developments

  • The company has won series of patent infringement cases against major B Braun, after which the company is free to sell the advanced IV Safety Cannulae with the inbuild safety feature (http://www.expresshealthcare.in/201002/market26.shtml). This product has potential to sell at a very remunerative price in the developed nations.
  • The company has been strengthening its sales network on the domestic front and tying up with major hospitals.
  • The company is looking to expand its capacities and targets to double turnover in next 3 years. For they same they are also looking to put up a new factory.

Challenges:

Being a high volume low price product, the scaling up of the business is not easy. The company has been trying to develop new products to overcome the same.

Here is a company with strong financials, good business model, high margins, good return on equity, good cash flow yet available at less than 8 PE.

Update on Q3 nos

“Its’ the work on your desk…It’s the work on your desk. Do well with what you already have and more will come in.” – Charlie Munger

Dear Friends,

This post is to bring an update and review of all the stocks discussed till now.

Performance till now:

S.NO SCRIP NAME Date of Recommendation Price of Recommendation CMP Percentage Returns Remarks
1 CHI Investment 11-05-2009 25 45 80.00 Exit was advised earlier at higher price
2 Shilpa Medicare 26-07-2009 93 239 156.99 Hold
3 Jaihind Projects 02-08-2009 95 173 82.11 Hold
4 Albert David 25-08-2009 75 119 58.67 Book partial profits
5 Siemens Healthcare 14-09-2009 1100 1270 15.45 Exit was advised earlier
6 Ahlcon Parentals 28-09-2009 37 47 27.03 Hold
7 Fresenius Kabi 28-09-2009 80 120 50.00 Book partial profits
8 Majestic Auto 22-10-2009 68 62 -8.82 Hold
9 Suprajit Eng 26-10-2009 90 155 72.22 Hold
10 IST Ltd 16-11-2009 100 140 40.00 Buy
11 Manjushree Technopack 18-11-2009 32 46 43.75 Hold
12 Asian Hotels 01-12-2009 425 508 19.53 Buy on declines

Individual Updates:

1. Shilpa Medicare: This stock has been a wealth-creater. The company has yet again posted excellent Q3 nos. Based on the same, the future looks bright and the stock is getting the attention of bigger investors (Read: ICICI Prudential mutual fund 🙂 ). On repeat or better financial performance, the stock has potential to reach 350 levels.

2. Jaihind Projects: The company has been doing well. As per a recent ET article, the co has to complete major projects by mid this year. One should continue to hold.

3. Albert David: This stock was picked as more of a value pick to park idle funds. One can consider booking partial profits.

4. Suprajit Engineering: The company has come out with excellent Q3 nos. The stock has also done well. To reward the shareholders, the management has proposed 45% interim dividend, 1:1 bonus and stock split. Though a bit aggressive than required, all these developments can take the stock to higher levels.

5. IST Ltd: As per the recent updates, the construction activities are going at good pace and co has built almost 10 lac sq ft of space. Leasing out of the same in due time will be a very positive development. If things keep going as per the plans, the stock has all the potentials of becoming a multi-bagger.

6. Manjushree Technopack: We have been providing updates in other threads.

7. Asian Hotels: Usually demergers create lot of shareholder wealth. So one should remain invested and look forward to buying on declines.

We are trying to bring some new picks from the Q3 nos. In the meanwhile some of my other favourite cos have come out with very good numbers and investors can consider them for investing: Balkrishna Industries & Poly Medicure.

Siemens Healthcare

siemens (1)

I came across this very interesting stock idea and I think we all should dig into it more and accumulate on declines.

Background:

The company was earlier known as Bayer Diagnostics. Siemens group took over this company last year.

Positives:

  1. Tiny Equity capital of just 1.57 Cr hence at CMP of 1100 – Mcap of 165-170 Cr is not much considering it to be part of the huge Siemens group.
  2. The company is into healthcare sector which is bound to grow rapidly over next few years. Cos like Siemens are market leaders in this sector and can exploit the maximum potential.
  3. The turnover has already started increasing. Co has reported 75% growth till June 09 (first 9 months) and 92% growth in March Qtr (45.38 Cr vs 23.61 Cr)
  4. The profitability part is not clear due to several adjustments and may be balance sheet clean up after the takeover. But I expect the OPMs to be easily 20%+ if the Siemens group is bringing it’s expertise in this co. We should get a clearer picture in next qtr nos and annual report.

The opportunity I’m seeing is – For a group like Siemens, current size of operations & Mcap are peanuts. They can definitely scale-up big time here and create multibagger returns for shareholders.

Please dig in more and contribute with your industry knowledge on this company.

Shilpa Medicare – A strong bet on Oncology

The company has come out with very good June Qtr nos and deserves a closer tracking.

About the company and the business:

  • Company has been expanding in the Oncology space and wants to be the largest Oncology API manufacturer in India apart from big formulation cos which do production for captive use. This space has lesser competition and hence quite high margins
  • Go through the announcements of the regulatory approvals the company has achieved in last 1 year. Co claims to be one of the few cos to get such approvals
  • Company expects to get USFDA approval by year end.

On Financials:

  • Company has scaled up from just 25 Cr topline in 2003 to 138 Cr last year and targeting close to 200 Cr this year.
  • Margins have been on the rise over the years due to co’s deliberate move from low margin to high margin business. The margins are currently at 25%+…on a turnover of 200 Cr this will result into an operating profit of 50 Cr, from this we should subtract the interest and taxation cost, which shouldn’t be more than 7.5 & 10 Cr respectively. We get a figure of 35 Cr+ as potential cash flow this year and NP could be close to 25 Cr, conservatively.
  • For margins calculations I have been removing the forex adjustments. Last year the company suffered a notional 10.85 Cr forex loss on the outstanding ECB. In this quarter there is a gain of 2.9 Cr.
  • There are some losses in the consolidated nos, as the company did an acquisition in Austria last year. These losses are expected to come down soon.

Why I like the company:

  • I like companies with scalable business model having high operating margins. Shilpa is growing fast with operating margins expected to remain very healthy around 25%.
  • The company seems honest and has been applying conservative accounting policies. The company has been providing good amount of depreciation and tax at the maximum rate.

Valuations:

  • Currently trading at less than 8 times expected FY 10 EPS of 12 (this EPS is excluding forex gains/losses). Not very cheap but a strong buy on declines.

Annexure 1:

Year

200303

200403

200503

200603

200703

200803

200903

201003

Type

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Full Year

Sales Turnover

24.11

35.66

37.51

47.62

68.39

95.81

138.09

200.00

Other Income

1.78

0.73

1.12

1.27

2.36

2.52

0.90

Total Income

25.89

36.39

38.63

48.89

70.75

98.33

138.99

200.00

Total Expenditure

23.68

30.88

32.79

40.58

56.79

77.22

102.00

Operating Profit

2.21

5.51

5.84

8.31

13.96

21.11

36.99

50.00

Interest

0.29

0.46

0.31

0.39

0.32

0.85

4.92

7.00

Gross Profit

1.92

5.05

5.53

7.92

13.64

20.26

32.07

43.50

Depreciation

0.30

0.82

1.00

1.77

2.30

3.51

6.05

9.00

Extraordinary Adj

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

10.85

0.00

Tax

0.63

1.74

1.24

1.88

3.48

5.44

8.39

9.00

Reported PAT

0.99

2.49

3.29

4.27

7.86

11.31

6.78

25.00

EPS

0.74

1.85

2.40

2.46

4.53

5.32

3.08

11.35

PE

12.00

Exp Price

136

CMP (26-Jul-09)

95

OPM %

9.17

15.45

15.57

17.45

20.41

22.03

26.79

25.00

NP %

4.11

6.98

8.77

8.97

11.49

11.80

4.91

12.50

Mcap

209.24

ROCE:

21.73

39.54

29.53

17.61

21.34

12.21