Happy New Year – 2012


Dear Friends,

Wishing you and your family a very Happy New Year. May this year bring immense joy, health and prosperity.

With a good correction in our Markets during last year 2011, this year should provide some excellent long term opportunities. We believe coming months would be an apt time to create a quality long term portfolio.

The hangover of a gloomy 2011 continues into the New Year. And while we can’t predict how the year will ride out, we can hope for the tide to turn – that the markets will revive, the political turbulence will calm down and the people on the street will breathe easier. Till then, optimism seems to be the only mantra to survive this crisis.

Couldn’t agree more with the above quote from Financial Express on 1st Jan, 2012. India has one of the best growth prospects and if we believe the future lifestyle of individuals will be better than surely markets will also deliver. There will be new big winners and we have the opportunity to grow along by investing in their shares.

New Year has begun on a long awaited positive reform of opening our markets to foreign investors. There is a huge no of  global investors who want to invest in our markets with ease but the doors were closed. Our country receives huge remittances which were being channelized into other assets, on getting proper platform and guidance the investment into equities will surely increase.

As a country we have a huge import-export deficit hence net exporting companies should do far better. We are focusing on good export oriented companies or domestic companies having some niche and strong balance sheet (debt management and capital allocation). During the 2011 decline, the markets have been broadly quite rationale in separating good companies from the bad ones. Good companies have been respected while the highly leveraged or companies with poor fundamentals have been punished strongly. Going forward also, quality stocks will continue to create out-performance and wealth for investors. It is still a good time to get rid of poor companies and switch into promising new ideas.

Happy Investing!

13 thoughts on “Happy New Year – 2012”

  1. Ayush happy new year. Please list your stocks which are export dependent. I am guessing you are talking about non IT stocks?

    1. Hi Jigs,

      Yes, though the IT sector is a major beneficiary but we feel that the large stocks are well discovered. Though there seems to be value in some small cap IT stocks.

      Among the stocks we cover, some export beneficiaries are:
      Gujarat Reclaim Rubber
      Oriental Carbon
      Avanti Feeds
      Balkrishna Ind
      Poly Medicure

      Would be great to know your views/opinion. I remain a keen follower of your blog 🙂

      1. Thanks Ayush for reading my Blog. I continue to learn from all incl. you :-). I wish to be original NOT run of the mill kind of Analyst.I track your pick – Gujarat Reclaim and have recommended to clients. No view on other four stocks but will check and revert.Among export oriented companies I track Gokaldas, IFGL, Steelcast, AIA Engineering, Carborundum, Fairfield and Sundram Fastners. Note that I personally hold NONE as of today as my statistical model has not given BUY signal in any stock as of now. I also track companies in exports logistics – Sical, Allcargo, GD etc.

  2. For small investors, it would be best to keep investing in disciplined manner rather than waiting for right time to enter markets.
    Like everyone, we also hope that 2012 ends in green.

  3. Happy new year Ayush. What is your view on Q3 results of Oriental Carbon? I m expecting a below par result to accumulate more….

    1. Happy new year Ayush. What is your view on Q3 results of Oriental
      Carbon? I m expecting a below par result and a fall in CMP to accumulate more….

      1. Though the net profits may not rise on YOY basis due to high depreciation and interest cost, but I’m expecting performance better than q2.

        The key thing would be sales growth and margins.

    1. Hi,

      Indag’s results are good and the stock should do well. There is lot of pessimism and lack of retail participation currently.

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