Update on Q3 nos

“Its’ the work on your desk…It’s the work on your desk. Do well with what you already have and more will come in.” – Charlie Munger

Dear Friends,

This post is to bring an update and review of all the stocks discussed till now.

Performance till now:

S.NO SCRIP NAME Date of Recommendation Price of Recommendation CMP Percentage Returns Remarks
1 CHI Investment 11-05-2009 25 45 80.00 Exit was advised earlier at higher price
2 Shilpa Medicare 26-07-2009 93 239 156.99 Hold
3 Jaihind Projects 02-08-2009 95 173 82.11 Hold
4 Albert David 25-08-2009 75 119 58.67 Book partial profits
5 Siemens Healthcare 14-09-2009 1100 1270 15.45 Exit was advised earlier
6 Ahlcon Parentals 28-09-2009 37 47 27.03 Hold
7 Fresenius Kabi 28-09-2009 80 120 50.00 Book partial profits
8 Majestic Auto 22-10-2009 68 62 -8.82 Hold
9 Suprajit Eng 26-10-2009 90 155 72.22 Hold
10 IST Ltd 16-11-2009 100 140 40.00 Buy
11 Manjushree Technopack 18-11-2009 32 46 43.75 Hold
12 Asian Hotels 01-12-2009 425 508 19.53 Buy on declines

Individual Updates:

1. Shilpa Medicare: This stock has been a wealth-creater. The company has yet again posted excellent Q3 nos. Based on the same, the future looks bright and the stock is getting the attention of bigger investors (Read: ICICI Prudential mutual fund 馃檪 ). On repeat or better financial performance, the stock has potential to reach 350 levels.

2. Jaihind Projects: The company has been doing well. As per a recent ET article, the co has to complete major projects by mid this year. One should continue to hold.

3. Albert David: This stock was picked as more of a value pick to park idle funds. One can consider booking partial profits.

4. Suprajit Engineering: The company has come out with excellent Q3 nos. The stock has also done well. To reward the shareholders, the management has proposed 45% interim dividend, 1:1 bonus and stock split. Though a bit aggressive than required, all these developments can take the stock to higher levels.

5. IST Ltd: As per the recent updates, the construction activities are going at good pace and co has built almost 10 lac sq ft of space. Leasing out of the same in due time will be a very positive development. If things keep going as per the plans, the stock has all the potentials of becoming a multi-bagger.

6. Manjushree Technopack: We have been providing updates in other threads.

7. Asian Hotels: Usually demergers create lot of shareholder wealth. So one should remain invested and look forward to buying on declines.

We are trying to bring some new picks from the Q3 nos. In the meanwhile some of my other favourite cos have come out with very good numbers and investors can consider them for investing: Balkrishna Industries & Poly Medicure.

Asian Hotels

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About Asian Hotels:

路 They operate three 5 star deluxe category hotels. Locations: Delhi, Mumbai & Kolkattta.

路 They operate the Hyatt Regency brand on the above three locations.

The stock is still undervalued based on the following logics:

路 The hotel sector is also recovering with the upturn in the economy. Going by the latest newspaper headlines, occupancies are back to 85% though ARRs are still 10-20% below normal peak levels. Hotels stocks are still down more than 50% below the crash levels.

路 Usually the per room cost (excluding land cost) is considered to be 1 Cr for a good 5 star property. Asian Hotels has 1144 rooms in total and at CMP of 420, the per room M Cap works out to be around 80 lac only.

路 The company is believed to have aggressive expansion plans post demerger

Demerger:

The most noticeable point based on the latest demerger scheme is 鈥 Promoters are going to infuse Rs. 341 Cr before the demerger by taking a preferential allotment @ 540…while CMP is 420.

Post demerger, the three hotels i.e. at Delhi, Mumbai & Kolkatta will get listed separately. So a shareholder holding 3 shares of Asian Hotels currently will get 1 share each of each of the separate entity.

Since long Asian Hotels hasn’t expanded its hotel base. It is said that there were conflicts between the promoters and hence the company wasn’t aggressive. With the demerger, the negative synergy should be removed.

The unlocking of the hidden value for the current shareholders can be expected with this demerger.