Updates on the Quarterly Results – Q4FY14

Arun Jaitley – the new finance minister

First of all a heartiest congratulations to everyone for giving such a clear mandate. It was the need of the hour for our country and society to have a better and stable government. It is heartening to see that this time the election has been won on the agenda of development. From inaction and scams, lets hope the economy gets back on track.

The markets have witnessed a major change and upliftment in its mood over last few weeks. Those who were invested from before must be enjoying the gains. One should be careful, however, to not get carried away. These broad rallies are very useful for portfolio reconstruction – i.e. getting out of ideas or mistakes where the conviction levels were not high and moving into companies with a better clarity and visibility.

Lately, we have not been posting much because the companies we have discussed earlier are performing quite well fundamentally and continuing to grow consistently. We feel they still have a good long term potential.

Brief updates on our existing ideas:

Astral Poly – While the company continues to deliver an expected growth of about 30%, the stock keeps surprising everyone through a regular re-rating. Though the stock does trade at high valuations now, we recommend reading this article for some insights about the company’s high quality of business, management and growth prospects going forward.

Ajanta Pharma – Ajanta has once again come up with an excellent quarter – it continues to surprise everyone with the quality of its numbers. Do see their latest presentation, which gives a lot of insight on the brands they own and other qualitative aspects of their business. The slide number 14 is very interesting and is one of the key reasons behind their good growth and superior margins.

Shilpa Medicare – Shilpa Medicare too has reported a good quarter:

Particulars 2013 2014 % Change
Turnover 328.19 527.37 60.69%
EBIDT 69.82 126.57 81.28%
NP 46.06 80.86 75.55%
EPS 12.49 21.98

Its good to see a consistent increase in the gross block of the company. Recently the company has raised 75 Cr by way of preferential allotment to an FII. The company has been developing a product pipeline over the last 3-4 years; we expect the new facilities and products to give a revenue growth of 25-30%+ CAGR over the coming years.

Avanti Feeds – The company continues to maintain high growth rates with a revenue growth of 75% in 2014. Its amazing to see that the company has grown from just 72 Cr turnover in 2009 to 1135 Cr in 2014. The balance sheet is quite healthy with a debt of just 50 Crores.

Particulars 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % CAGR
Turnover 72.51 96.16 199.62 393.41 648.04 1131.61 98.76%
NP -8.59 -1.20 3.42 28.06 30.20 69.75
EPS -10.74 -1.50 4.28 30.90 33.26 76.82

As per a recent article on the company, the company has recently set up a 85,000 tonne plant in addition to its capacity of 1,40,000 tonnes. With the industry continuing to do very well, it is expected that Avanti may again deliver high growth of 30-50% for the coming year FY15.

Its also good to see promoters buying over 1.7 lac shares since 1st April, 2014.

*Caution: Shrimp industry is a high risk industry, often affected by shrimp diseases and natural calamities.

Kitex Garments – We visited the AGM of the company and it was a superb experience. Its one of the those extra-ordinary entrepreneurship stories where a person has created a great company from scratch, all in 15-20 years.

Shareholders awarding Mr. Sabu for the excellent performance

Today, KGL is the third largest infant garments manufacturer in the world and supplying to some of the best names in the world including Gerber, ToysRus and Carter. They are known for manufacturing the best quality garments. Compared to a normal textile industry, the infant’s garment industry does not have a high competition. Infants can be allergic to dyes and chemicals, or chew the buttons – thus Kitex uses the best of the dyes and yarns. They also invest heavily into social compliances and provide an air-conditioned factory, free food and free stay to almost 9000 workers, of which 90% are females. The company had done a recent capex – it aims to be the biggest in the world in this year and eventually double the current size in 3-4 years.

Though the stock has had a sharp run up in recent times, we feel that it is one high quality business and should do well over a long term.

GRP – The company continues to face tough times. We were expecting the things to get better with the improving turnover, but this quarter has been a disappointment. Till the previous quarter, the issue was underutilization of capacity and problems at the new plant set up; hence we had a hope of better times as and when the economy improves. During the last quarter, however, the raw material cost as a percentage of total cost has increased substantially and is now a new cause of worry. We have reduced some exposure (by about 15-20%) and look forward for an update at the company’s upcoming AGM.

Oriental Carbon – After a long wait, the company has posted a good set of numbers. One of the big positives is the increase in dividend from Rs 5 last year to Rs 7 this year. The stock is trading at 5 times earnings with a price to book value of 1.

Amongst the new ideas, we are working on Anuh Pharma these days. The latest quarterly numbers hint an improvement in the company’s operations. From being a general bulk drug company, the company seems to be making efforts on R&D and entering regulated markets. The negatives are – 1. the group has several other unlisted companies which are also into pharmaceutical business and 2. the listed company has had a dull past.

We look forward to a strong budget over the next month. Happy investing!

Alembic Pharma Q&A and other updates

Alembic Pharma Management Q&A

We have an US CEO who has been with us for last 5 years and assembled together a top Team in International Generics business. Success has come because of Product Identification ability. Year-wise market-wise plans are drawn up till 2024

We have built a strong IP Culture/Team over last 5 years or so.

We have been following Alembic Pharma for last few quarters. We mentioned about the company in our Diwali post.

Alembic Pharma is among the oldest companies in the Indian pharma industry. But no major developments took place over the last decade as the company was more into the domestic markets, and limited to the anti-infectives, cough and cold segment which are highly competitive and matured. Over last 2-3 years there has been a contrasting change in the company. The revenues are growing (earlier the growth was 10% now it is 20-25%), the margins are expanding (earlier margins were 13-15% now it is 18-20%) and the balance sheet is getting stronger and efficient.

Reason for the change is the shift towards the international generics. This segment is expanding quite quickly for the company – from about 100 odd Cr in 2010 to 235 Cr in 2013 to 450 Cr in 2014 (expected). This segment has a potential to scale up to 1000 Cr turnover over the next 2-3 years given a strong product pipeline prepared by the company. Alembic Pharma has filed 60 ANDAs (just 18 five years back and 31 are approved till date). On the domestic side, the company has been entering the specialty segments such as Ophthalmology, Cardio, Anti-Diabetic etc, which have a higher growth and a better margin. Continue reading Alembic Pharma Q&A and other updates

The Best Ideas and stuff of 2012

Best wishes from Dalal Stree team

Welcome 2013!!!

Hello Friends, we wish you and your family a very Happy & Prosperous New Year!

2012 has been a good year for our financial markets with the sensex gaining over 25% this year and beating all other asset classes. The best thing was that the mid caps (the area we focus on) outperformed the broader markets and the high quality stocks were the major wealth creators. Those feeling that they might have missed the bus and it is late, have a look at this stat – markets are still 4% lower than they were 5 years back. It may be just a start of a long term bull market.

We went through the timeline and compiled the list of the best articles, learning and experiences of 2012. (They are not in any particular order):

Favorite Articles:

New Finance Blogs:

In 2012, we had some very interesting new finance blogs; we would love to congratulate them. We expect to see more new investing blogs in 2013.

  • Alpha Ideas – Nitin shares the best of the finance articles, videos and reports – everyday
  • Safal Niveshak – Vishal simplifies the teachings of the investing geniuses and makes them understandable in Indian market’s context
  • Value Investing by Dhwanil – Discusses value investing stock ideas with a clear thought process
  • Safir’s Picks – Safir is an opportunist investor, always with many interesting and winning ideas in his pockets (do follow him on Twitter too)

Best Videos:

Best Company Visits:

  • Astral Poly Technik – We met with the dealers and plumbers in Ahemdabad to do groundwork and were amazed by their feedback for a strong conviction
  • GRP – We were amazed by sincerity and knowledge of the management. Looking forward to attend AGM of 2013 too
  • Mayur Uniquoters – The grip and vision of the management on the business helped us in increasing the conviction

Our Best performers during the Year (with percentage change):

  • Astral Poly Technik (171%) – The growing brand presence and stock discovery led to high returns
  • Atul Auto (142%) – Company went pan-India from its home market of Gujrat
  • Liberty Phosphate (134%) – Favorable government policies for SSP sector led to mis-pricing opportunity
  • Mayur Uniquoters (130%) – Fantastic financial ratios along with growth led to a good re-rating
  • Apcotex (101%) – Earlier part of the Asian Paints group, this company did well on growth and dividends

The close runner-ups were up 100% each: Poly Medicure, Indag and BKT

Market learning of 2012:

Earlier we had a lot of focus on undervaluation while looking at a stock ideas. Now we have also started giving more weightage to the business quality and the scale of opportunity available. The three of the worst performing ideas were: Piccadily Agro, Faccor Alloys & BNK Capital

The common thing among all of them was that though they were good on ratios temporarily, but they had a poor business model or management.

Developing ideas for 2013:

Screener Developments:

During the year, we experimented with lots of ideas and things. We are highly excited about the developments on Screener and the feedback of users. Our favorite features of Screener are:

  • Export to Excel – Screener is the first website in the world to provide such a customization functionality
  • Alerts for Screens – We love to set the email alerts for the favorite screens in the Screener to keep an easy track of the latest results

Plans for 2013:

We are expecting the credit rate-cuts in early 2013 and are optimistic about the markets ahead. We plan to create more new tools to make investing happier and easier. We hope to discover more new stocks ideas. And above all, we look forward to your comments and support!

Wish you a very happy and prosperous new year ahead.

Best Wishes

Happy Diwali: Muhurat Picks and Quarterly result updates

Happy Diwali

Wish you a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali friends.

Tomorrow is the Muhurat Trading session from 3:45PM to 5PM and we would recommend all our readers to take part on this auspicious day.

Our muhurat picks are (in no particular order):

  1. Atul Auto
  2. Balkrishna Industries
  3. GRP
  4. Mazda
  5. Polymedicure

We are also studying Maithan Alloys and Aarti Drugs, and one may make an entry into them.

Further, the quarterly numbers have been good so far. A brief update about the latest numbers:

Continue reading Happy Diwali: Muhurat Picks and Quarterly result updates

Astral Poly: Management meet

We had recently mentioned about our trip to Gujarat and company visits there. Here is the detailed update on Astral Polytechnik.

We had first mentioned about this company in March, 2011. Since then the stock has done very well, rising from Rs 120 to 300 and we feel that it still has a good potential over a longer term. Here is a summary of the past track record of the company:

The company has had a fantastic growth – it has grown its turnover from hardly 13 Cr in 2003 to 578 Cr in 2012. We feel that the conversion from GI Pipes to CPVC is still catching up and hence the potential is still big enough and with the development and introduction of new products, company can continue with 25-30% growth rates for next few years. The stock may look fairly priced based on PE ratio but if one removes the forex losses (which are one time in nature), the stock is still reasonably priced, looking at the long term growth potential. Company is also focusing on creating a national brand.

Here are few excerpts from the management meet: Continue reading Astral Poly: Management meet

Notes from company visits and AGMs

Last few days have been one of the most interesting and learning days for me. I travelled with a group of fellow investors and friends to Gujarat on company visit of few of the companies of our interest. We had some fantastic discussions day and night, and were able to do some very exciting ground work on the companies we visited. Here is a quick summary:

GRP Ltd. (formerly Gujarat Reclaim & Rubber Products Ltd): Company held its AGM at Ankleshwar, Gujarat. The plant was quite green and well kept. As we entered, we were provided a safety manual. Management explained that GRP has been taking social economic initiatives and has been recently certified by Japan for a fire safety practice. They are the second company in Gujarat to get this certification. We also met another investor form Mumbai who too had been tracking the company over the years and provided valuable insights.

GRP is the pioneer and third largest company in the world in the rubber reclaiming business. The company supplies to 6 out of top 10 tyres companies in the world and to 4 out of top 10 non-tyre rubber companies in the world. The company is a preferred supplier.

Continue reading Notes from company visits and AGMs

Quarterly Results Update (Q3 FY12)

Q3 results have been generally good and most of our stock ideas have posted good performance. Here is a brief evaluation of their performance:

1. Balkrishna Ind: The company has yet again posted an excellent set of numbers and has surpassed the expectations. It is fantastic for a company with as large a turnover of about 2500 Crores to grow at 30%+ per annum. The company is in process of a greenfield expansion which should double their capacity in 2 years and hence the company has potential to keep growing at 30% p.a. for next 2-3 years. They are targeting 10% market share worldwide by 2014.

The stock has been a major outperformer in this market. Yet the stock is trading at just less than 10 times earnings. I do expect it to get further re-rated upwards with bigger investors coming in.

Particulars Dec 11 Dec 10 % Variation FY 2011
Sales 757.08 492.93 53.60% 1996.94
PBIDT 133.47 86.60 54.10% 370.70
Tax 35.02 18.37 91.87% 89.38
PAT 72.88 38.21 90.70% 185.66
EPS 7.54 6.54 19.21

*All Financial figures are in crore rupees (except EPS).

2. Astral Polytechnik: This is another GEM of a company. The company has delivered a growth of 60%+, much more than the expectations. This quarter results were expected to be bad because of the abnormal forex movement over last few months (company imports majority of raw materials and the Indian rupee has fallen from about Rs.44 levels to Rs.54 against the dollar in a span of few months). But the rupee has now recovered to Rs.49 levels and as the company has also done some price hikes in last few months, we may see some fantastic numbers in upcoming results.

Particulars Dec 11 Dec 10 % Variation FY 2011
Sales 160.51 98.49 63.00% 410.82
PBIDT 11.35 13.86 -18.00% 57.50
Tax 1.19 1.55 -23.20% 8.60
PAT 4.74 8.38 -43.40% 33.59
EPS 2.11 3.94 14.95

*All Financial figures are in crore rupees (except EPS).

Continue reading Quarterly Results Update (Q3 FY12)

Company Results Update…

The results season is finally over and it has been a mixed bag. There haven’t been much instances of major outperformances but overall good topline growth is being witnessed while margins are under pressure. It’s a good time to buy into selected good companies as margins would come back over the long run.

Results & updates on some of our favorite stock ideas:

1. Astral Poly – The stock was recommended here and we had provided an update about the meeting with the management.

The company has posted stellar growth yet again. For this year their turnover has grown 42% from 291 Crores last year to 411 Crores this year. The margins were under pressure and Net Profit growth was 18%. As per notes to accounts, the company has expanded the capacity by 56% from last year. As per analyst meet held recently, during the current year the company will expand the capacity by another 45%. It remains one of the best stock idea with strong growth visibility @ 25-30% p.a. for next 2-3 years.

Continue reading Company Results Update…

Astral Polytechnik–Management Meet

We had recently posted about Astral Polytechnik Ltd. (APL). We had discussed about the shift taking place in the Indian plumbing market from GI Pipes to CPVC and Astral’s leadership position in the same. The feedback and further research on this stock has been remarkable.

Our friend – Donald Francis, made a company visit and had a Management Meet to get a better understanding. Few highlights:

We see us growing at 30-35% CAGR for the next few years. If we execute well, a Rs. 1000 Cr turnover is achievable within the next 3 years.

We are looking to expand to 70,000 MT by this year end.

The availability of the CPVC compound (other than Lubrizol) is a key constraint.

Please check out the complete report (requires free login) to get a in-depth understanding of the company and the potential ahead.

Key Takeaways from his meeting:

  • The opportunity for the CPVC players is huge as the acceptance and usage of CPVC is increasing fast in the plumbing industry.

Continue reading Astral Polytechnik–Management Meet

Astral Poly Technik Ltd – BSE:532830

Real Estate/Construction sector is a huge area in India and the potential going forward is enormous. Plumbing and clean water transportation is a very important area and crucial part of a construction project. Repairing of plumbing work is a very troublesome and costly affair and hence one won’t compromise on this front.

The plumbing industry in India is undergoing a smart change. Earlier, GI Pipes used to dominate the market but now PVC and CPVC pipes are fast replacing the GI Pipes. CPVC resin is most hygienic compound for water transportation and is resistant to corrosion. Hence as awareness and quality consciousness is increasing, more and more people are adopting CPVC pipes for plumbing needs.

Lubrizol (earlier B F Goodrich a Fortune 500 Company, USA) has been a leader in development of CPVC and they hold the patent for the same. Astral Poly is the first licensee of Lubrizol of USA and have a techno-financial joint venture with Specialty Process LLC of USA. Continue reading Astral Poly Technik Ltd – BSE:532830