Updates on the Quarterly Results – Q4FY14

arun-j3_mini
Arun Jaitley – the new finance minister

First of all a heartiest congratulations to everyone for giving such a clear mandate. It was the need of the hour for our country and society to have a better and stable government. It is heartening to see that this time the election has been won on the agenda of development. From inaction and scams, lets hope the economy gets back on track.

The markets have witnessed a major change and upliftment in its mood over last few weeks. Those who were invested from before must be enjoying the gains. One should be careful, however, to not get carried away. These broad rallies are very useful for portfolio reconstruction – i.e. getting out of ideas or mistakes where the conviction levels were not high and moving into companies with a better clarity and visibility.

Lately, we have not been posting much because the companies we have discussed earlier are performing quite well fundamentally and continuing to grow consistently. We feel they still have a good long term potential.

Brief updates on our existing ideas:

Astral Poly – While the company continues to deliver an expected growth of about 30%, the stock keeps surprising everyone through a regular re-rating. Though the stock does trade at high valuations now, we recommend reading this article for some insights about the company’s high quality of business, management and growth prospects going forward.

Ajanta Pharma – Ajanta has once again come up with an excellent quarter – it continues to surprise everyone with the quality of its numbers. Do see their latest presentation, which gives a lot of insight on the brands they own and other qualitative aspects of their business. The slide number 14 is very interesting and is one of the key reasons behind their good growth and superior margins.

Shilpa Medicare – Shilpa Medicare too has reported a good quarter:

Particulars 2013 2014 % Change
Turnover 328.19 527.37 60.69%
EBIDT 69.82 126.57 81.28%
NP 46.06 80.86 75.55%
EPS 12.49 21.98

Its good to see a consistent increase in the gross block of the company. Recently the company has raised 75 Cr by way of preferential allotment to an FII. The company has been developing a product pipeline over the last 3-4 years; we expect the new facilities and products to give a revenue growth of 25-30%+ CAGR over the coming years.

Avanti Feeds – The company continues to maintain high growth rates with a revenue growth of 75% in 2014. Its amazing to see that the company has grown from just 72 Cr turnover in 2009 to 1135 Cr in 2014. The balance sheet is quite healthy with a debt of just 50 Crores.

Particulars 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % CAGR
Turnover 72.51 96.16 199.62 393.41 648.04 1131.61 98.76%
NP -8.59 -1.20 3.42 28.06 30.20 69.75
EPS -10.74 -1.50 4.28 30.90 33.26 76.82

As per a recent article on the company, the company has recently set up a 85,000 tonne plant in addition to its capacity of 1,40,000 tonnes. With the industry continuing to do very well, it is expected that Avanti may again deliver high growth of 30-50% for the coming year FY15.

Its also good to see promoters buying over 1.7 lac shares since 1st April, 2014.

*Caution: Shrimp industry is a high risk industry, often affected by shrimp diseases and natural calamities.

Kitex Garments – We visited the AGM of the company and it was a superb experience. Its one of the those extra-ordinary entrepreneurship stories where a person has created a great company from scratch, all in 15-20 years.

Shareholders awarding Mr. Sabu for the excellent performance

Today, KGL is the third largest infant garments manufacturer in the world and supplying to some of the best names in the world including Gerber, ToysRus and Carter. They are known for manufacturing the best quality garments. Compared to a normal textile industry, the infant’s garment industry does not have a high competition. Infants can be allergic to dyes and chemicals, or chew the buttons – thus Kitex uses the best of the dyes and yarns. They also invest heavily into social compliances and provide an air-conditioned factory, free food and free stay to almost 9000 workers, of which 90% are females. The company had done a recent capex – it aims to be the biggest in the world in this year and eventually double the current size in 3-4 years.

Though the stock has had a sharp run up in recent times, we feel that it is one high quality business and should do well over a long term.

GRP – The company continues to face tough times. We were expecting the things to get better with the improving turnover, but this quarter has been a disappointment. Till the previous quarter, the issue was underutilization of capacity and problems at the new plant set up; hence we had a hope of better times as and when the economy improves. During the last quarter, however, the raw material cost as a percentage of total cost has increased substantially and is now a new cause of worry. We have reduced some exposure (by about 15-20%) and look forward for an update at the company’s upcoming AGM.

Oriental Carbon – After a long wait, the company has posted a good set of numbers. One of the big positives is the increase in dividend from Rs 5 last year to Rs 7 this year. The stock is trading at 5 times earnings with a price to book value of 1.

Amongst the new ideas, we are working on Anuh Pharma these days. The latest quarterly numbers hint an improvement in the company’s operations. From being a general bulk drug company, the company seems to be making efforts on R&D and entering regulated markets. The negatives are – 1. the group has several other unlisted companies which are also into pharmaceutical business and 2. the listed company has had a dull past.

We look forward to a strong budget over the next month. Happy investing!

  • Umesh Ghule

    hi ayush,

    i had one query, when you say buy on declines .. can you suggest if its any kind of decline or some major correction say 15 to 20%

    thanks in advance

    regards

    • Ayush

      By – buy on decline, we mean that one can keep buying whenever there is a correction in the stock. For someone not having any position in the stock, he can buy at CMP and buy more on decines.

      • Sushil

        Hi Ayush,
        I am not able to find L&T finance on screener.in. I think its because of “&” between L and T. I would appreciate if you can provide the link or any help.
        Regards,
        Sushil.

  • Sandy

    Hi Ayush,
    Thanks once again for the quarterly updates and updating the Performance sheet. Can you please also provide reasons for exiting from some of the ideas recently like Selan Exploration.

    Thanks,
    Sandy

    • Ayush

      Selan exploration has more than doubled from our entry point without any material change in earnings. The story of growth has been there but hasn’t played out till now. So we feel its better to safeguard profits and perhaps re-enter on more insights.

  • Rohit

    Hi Ayush,
    Thanks for providing the updates on different companies. However based upon the analysis, I am not able to take a decision on buying a stock. Please can you also mention which stock is a strong buy from the list.
    Regards

    • Ayush

      Hi Rohit,

      We are not into providing recommendations. We are just sharing our thoughts and research. Buy/sell call rests with you.

  • Prashanth

    Ayush,
    Interesting to note your interest in Anuh Pharma.
    On the API space, don’t you think Aarti Drugs is a better player with better return ratios and margins.
    They’ve had a very good quarter and promoters have been buying consistently.
    Of-course it comes with a baggage of higher debt.
    I know that you were (are?) invested in Aarti Drugs. Any reason for lack of interest in this one?

    • Ayush

      Hi Prashanth,

      Yes, we were invested into Aarti Drugs earlier. However, there were some unfortunate fire accidents in the co wherein few people got killed. After that we were not comfortable and took the decision to exit despite the undervaluation.

      Regards,
      Ayush

      • Nasirul Amin

        Hats Off Ayush Bhai! Such an ethical decision.

  • rajeev

    sir we can buy ANUH PHARMA at current level

    • Ayush

      Hi Rajeev,

      We are not into providing recommendations. We are just sharing our thoughts and research. Buy/sell call rests with you.

  • PrAvEeN

    What’s your view about Adi Finechem

    • Ayush

      ADI FInechem looks very interesting….the co has been performing quite well. The concern is that the good performance is also due to margin expansion in recent quarters….one needs to check if the same can be sustained.

  • Anil

    Hello Ayush,
    Seems the EPS figure for Shilpa got interchanged between 2013 & 2014. Also, the AR of Alembic Pharma is out, would like to know your updated views. I do hold the stock.

    • Ayush

      Hi Anil,

      Thanks for pointing it out.

      The annual report of Alembic looks very good and seems promising for long term.

  • Bharath Kumar

    Hi Ayush,

    Can we enter into Waterbase at the CMP and what is your views on AVT Natural

    • Ayush

      Hi Bharat,

      The buy sell decision rests with you. AVT NAtural is a good co….but i’m not tracking it very closely to be able to comment much.

  • Mukul Kumar

    Thanks Ayush, Great analysis, I am also learning from you, Astral poly seems very expensive though

    • Nasirul Amin

      Astral is definitely very expensive for two reason. The split is coming & fundamentally nothing changes but often price goes up when split is announced & comes down a lot of time after split. Second the market is discounting the production expansion at Hosur Plant, which will augment it’s current capacity.

    • Ayush

      Yes, Astral is expensive but at the same time its a very high quality co and such cos are not easy to come across.

  • malthankar

    Thanks Ayush for reply on shipla medicare. Current eps is 20.56 and after dilution EPS is 19.62.There is around 20 cr foreign exchange loss in FY 14 result. company started showing forex loss
    in Q2 and Q3 when dollar rate was more than 60 rs but in Q4 they have not declared forex loss. Just thinking that if dollar remain some where 60, shilpa may not declare forex loss. that
    could increase eps in current year. Could you pls provide your view on this? (If i remove forex loss from current year than company would have made eps as 23.50+)
    i feel when dollar rate were 55/-, company was declaring forex gain. (if it exports than how this rs appreciation helps company)
    is there any doc where i can find what company is going to do with 75 cr?

    Thanks in advance – Milind

    • Ayush

      Hi Milind,

      As the company hasn’t mentioned about the forex loss in the annual results, I’m not giving much emphasis to it and not adding it to the profits.

      However, I’m focussing here a bit longer and if one reads their FY13 annual report, it seems they have created a strong pipeline of products which may contribute well in coming years.

  • malthankar

    Hi Ayush, I was going through Kaveri and monsanto seeds, though kaveri turnover is double than monsanto , monsanto is commanding 30 PE where kaveri is still around 20 PE. Where kaveri mgmt seems confident of growing 20% , monsanto may grow by 15 to 20%. I see monsanto is FII based where kaveri is india based. Profit margin of both the company also similar kind of. Any views would help me understand this
    Thanks
    Milind

    • Ayush

      Hi Milind,

      Yeah, its not easy to have sure shot answers to these. Also, one shouldn’t look at relative valuations too much.

      Few reasons for better valuations for Monsanto could be – 1. Its an MNC and world leader and hence much more confidence 2. The co has its own R&D and is much ahead of Kaveri in that context. 3. The co has started doing well after a very long time and hence the higher multiples.

  • rahul

    I have bought dredging [email protected] and walchandnagar [email protected] in anticipation of getting good government orders over a period of time .. They have run quite well in this rally .. I am ready to add more if they fall another 20-30% .. What’s your take on these stocks ??

    • Ayush

      Sorry, not tracking them

  • Gaurav Sinhal

    Hi Ayush
    Thanks for posting your insights on some of the good growth stories. Please provide your views on Granules which is also bulk drug company slowly transforming itself. Growth has been good last year and they have also started sharing more details via investor presentation, Result calls etc.
    Thanks,
    Gaurav

    • Ayush

      Hi Gaurav,

      Granules has done quite well. I had looked at it earlier but didn’t like that they had too much of debt on balance sheet. Haven’t tracked it much after that.

  • Puneet Tandon

    Hi Ayush,
    What is your view on MPS Ltd. on current valuations. Stock seems to be underperforming in last few months. Pls share your long term view on this stock ? Is business scalable ?

    thanks.

    • Ayush

      Hi Puneet,

      I feel what MPS has done till now is really remarkable and we need to give more time to the co and see if the growth is coming in or not. If the growth can come then the stock is attractive.

      • Puneet Tandon

        Thanks Ayush. I have no positions in MPS and was wondering if this is a good level for entry.My time horizon is 5+. Pls share why u see growth is slowing ?

        • Ayush

          Yes, it could be. I don’t see the growth slowing down.

  • Siddharth

    Ayush sir,

    how does nahar spinning mills looks to you from the current valuatoins.

    • Ayush

      Sorry, no idea.

  • Varun

    Hi Ayush. I had posted this message on Valuepickr as well.. so feel free to respond to that blog if u prefer with ur inputs as well… Essentially Im trying to understand the pharma sector better. How should one go about picking a pharma player. Say if u had to look at shilpa medicare, ajanta pharma, alembic…. which is a better business model ? Is it better to be a branded formulations guy or API or CRAM ? What differentiates these companies from the rest ? Is there a good source that I could refer to to build my knowledge on this..

    • Ayush

      Hi Varun,

      I haven’t been able to visit valuepickr.com for sometime.

      To understand the basics of pharma industry, we had started a thread on valuepickr wherein these basics have been discussed. Plz have a look.

      Yes, a branded formulations player would be better generally as it would have better margins, pricing power and lower capital requirements. Of the three, it seems, the business model of Ajanta is the strongest.

  • Umesh Ghule

    hi ayush,

    how is smruthi organics still a hold after the US FDA warnings, are you +ve on its future.

    thanks

    • Ayush

      Hi Umesh,

      The stock has corrected quite a lot from about 200 levels to 60 levels, after the USFDA warning came. So it has been kept on hold.

    • Ayush

      We have kept it on hold as the market cap is quite less now and incase the co gets re-approval then the stock may come back to the previous price.

      However, if they are not able to resolve the issue in due course….it will be a big negative.

  • Ayush Sir,

    What ur upatake on fedder’s lloyd

    • Ayush

      I don’ track the same.

  • Sagar Saxena

    Hi Ayush bhai.How does JBM Auto look to you.Sure,it has had an excellent run but valuations still look very cheap.Something similar to Avanti Feeds(multiples have expanded,but still isn’t expensive at all)

    • Ayush

      Not tracking.

  • hello sir,

    how does gol offshore looks to you & your outlook for the shipping sector.

    • Ayush

      We don’t track this sector

  • Ayush

    Definitely competition and innovation will increase for the Oncology space going forward. But given the way this bad disease is increasing rapidly, there will be enough space for several players to come in. We can’t compare Novartis to Shilpa directly.

  • value investor

    Have you looked at $aregama? 200 crore market cap but it owns 100 crore worth of CESC shares and unused land worth another 50 crore. So the core music business is available for 50 crore. In latest numbers it has grown 20%, with 50%+ EBIT margin and 50%+ ROIC. It owns the largest music library in India (although most of it is pre-90s it is still valuable as copyright in India is for 60 years). With smartphones and internet penetration, it can drive music downloads through the roof. Marginal cost is limited, so incremental revenues are high margin.

    • Ayush

      No, we don’t track

  • DINESH JAIN

    Hi Ayush…any idea about ADIFINCHEM

    • Ayush

      It seems to be a interesting co….just have been concerned over the expansion in margin in recent times and sustenance of the same.

  • Sir, how GOODYEAR looks to you?

  • WhatsupPrahalad

    Ayush ji: have not seen anybody discuss Jayant agro organics which is a deep value stock with great numbers.. I would appreciate if you could share your thoughts.. why you like it or why you dont like it.. Thanks in Advance..
    ——————
    Jayant Agro Organics
    CMP: 128
    MCap: 190cr
    ROCE: 19.45%, ROE: 22.61%
    3yrs CAGR Sales: 21.49%
    3 yrs CAGR inNet Profits: 43.88%
    PE: 4.83 (March 2014)
    EV to Sales: 0.30
    EV to EBIDTA: 4.96
    7 yrs 588% increase in profits and 335% increase in sales
    =================
    Consolidated Sales/NP/dividend numbers.
    March 2007 Sales 462.49Cr Net Profit: 6.76Cr Div:1.25
    March 2008 Sales 605.96Cr Net Profit: 9.51Cr Div:1.25
    March 2009 Sales 875.86Cr Net Profit 7.49Cr Div: 1.25
    March 2010 Sales 904.01Cr Net Profit: 12.47Cr Div:1.50
    March 2011 Sales 1,175.26Cr Net Profit: 24.92Cr Div 1.75
    March 2012 Sales 1,832.26Cr Net Profit: 31.35Cr Div: 2.00
    March 2013 Sales 1,624Cr Net Profit: 36.24Cr Div: 2.25
    March 2014 Sales 1,550Cr NProfit: 39.75cr Div: 3/=

    =================
    Consistent dividend paying company since inception.(20 plusyrs)
    40% equity is Bonus capital.
    Promoter stake 65.2%
    Only 5244 shareholders..
    ——————————–
    Jayant agro is Uniquely placed as India is the largest producer of castor crop in the world producing 75% of world`s production.. Jayant Agro is the largest processor of castor oil and castor oil derivatives in India.

    Jayant also produces the world`s largest range of castor oil derivative… Jayant exports 90% of its sales and is a Govt recognized Star Trading House..(other well know star trading House(exporters with similar export sales) are: L&T, ITC, Arvind, Bajaj Auto, M&M, BHEL, Balkrishna Industries, IPCA, Biocon, HUL, Cipla) Jayant Agro is the cheapest Star trading house listed

    http://www.fieo.org/Indian-Trading-House-Information-Directory.php

    ===================
    =happy investing
    Whatsup Prahalad

  • Mukul Kumar

    Hi, Do you hold freshtrop fruits? I think you were interested, is it good enough to add?
    Thanks a lot

    • Ayush

      Yes, we hold. Buy/Sell depends on you…plz take your own call.

  • RGoyal

    Hi Ayush! Do you track Jaicorp? if yes, then please let me know your finding / observation

    • Ayush

      No, I don’t. However, I had looked at it earlier and was disappointed to find a large part of BV created by allotting redeemable pref shares to promoters at a huge premium.

  • Sudheendra

    Hi Ayush

    Read some concerns raised by Donald in the valuepickr portal about Kitex. Any takes on that?

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      Yes, concerns are there but I quite like the way the co has scaled up the business till now and the quality of earnings are excellent. Also, as we had bought the stock at a lot of margin of safety.

      We will try to seek answers to those queries and insights.

  • ishank

    Any views on DHP India?

    • Ayush

      The co is interesting and doing well. We are invested in it since sometime. The only concern is – how scalable is the business?

  • Puneet Tandon

    hi Ayush,
    Do you track Force Motors and South India Bank ? if yes, pls share insights on these stocks
    -Mohnish Pabrai picked a big chunk of South India Bank recently.

    thanks.

    • Ayush

      No, I don’t track the same. But very much interested to do work on South India Bank post the entry of Mohnish Pabrai. Do share if you have some insights.

      • Puneet Tandon

        Beats me why Pabrai bought South India Bank. He rarely invests in india as per a interview i read.

        ————
        You have rarely invested in India…

        [Pabrai:] I invested twice in India. One was an investment that returned 100x! And the other was the ADR of Dr Reddys. Ironically, the 100x investment was Satyam when Satyam was good. I invested in 1995 and I exited in 2000. But I don’t invest in India because there are too many regulatory hurdles.

        ————–

        • Ayush

          The interview might be dated. I recently heard his interview (before elections) wherein he was talking about the upcoming political change and the great opportunity Indian markets will offer.

          • Puneet Tandon

            Ok thanks..So what’s your take on South India bank on current valuations. Any analysis you have done on it ?

          • Ayush

            Haven’t been able to work on it 🙁

          • Puneet Tandon

            Pls do work on it, so small investors like me can also get enlightened. 🙂

          • Puneet Tandon

            Ayush,
            DId u get a chance to work on South Indian Bank ? If yes, pls share your insights.
            Also plz update the “Performance” section, its been a while.

            thanks..

          • Ayush

            No, haven’t been able to go through the same. WIll try to update.

  • Ayush

    Hi Prahalad,

    Went through the nos etc, yes, the co seems quite interesting and the track record is good.

    What I didn’t like is – 1. High debt 2. Lack of my personal understanding of the area they are operating in.

  • Krishnan

    Hi Ayush

    Do you track speciality restaurants? What’s your views on it from a longer term perspective? can it be a safe bet with inflation coming down?

  • Shashi

    Ayush. May God bless you. Keep up the good work.

    • Ayush

      Thanks 🙂

  • Anil

    Hi Ayush,

    Wanted to know your view on poly med post Q1 numbers..and in case you recently had any interaction/update with the management? Disc: I hold the stock..

    On Hester Bio – they have been churning out good numbers..any view on this one? It looks definitely interesting to me…Disc: initiated small position..

    thanks,

    • Ayush

      Hi Anil,

      The Q1 nos of Polymed look average given the price rise but at times it may be a qtr or two thing.

      Hester looks pretty interesting as they have done quite well over the last few years and seem to have a very strong base and leadership position in the niche segment of poultry vaccines. Over the last 2-3 years, the co has been trying to enter the large animal vaccines area…which is a much much bigger market (though lesser margins). The investment being done at Nepal seems to be the step in the right direction. Lets see how things play out over next 2-3 years.

  • poliuiii

    Hi Ayush, What are your views on the OCCL June 2014 results? Any concerns?

    Keep doing the great work that you guys are doing.

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      The nos look decent. The only concern is that the growth seems very slow as of now. But with the Mundra issue been resolved…I would expect the co to do well over next 2-3 years.

  • Muthukumar

    Hi Ayush,

    Thanks for the great post and updates. Please share your views on MPS in current valuation and prospects. It will be great to have the an update in dalal-street.in with new ideas and happenings 🙂

    -Muthu

  • harshit

    HI , do you track jain irrigation? Are there positive development with regard to
    drip iirigation being used more after the Budget ? At cmp of Rs 99 ,is it long term stock?

    • Ayush

      Sorry, I’m not tracking the same.

  • Ayush

    Hi Muthu,

    MPS looks good to us at the current levels. The best thing is the div yield of close to 5% and hence downside protection in these markets.

  • rev

    Hello Ayush

    MCS results have been disappointing. Bottomline hit with higher finance costs and a flattish quarter compared to the preceding one. Is this because of delay in funding from Banks? Do you think the company will be able to maintain higher disbursement in this FY as well ?

    Will you be attending the AGM ?

    Thanks

    Rev

    • Ayush

      Hi Rev,

      I won’t call the results disappointing as the Q1 has been weak in terms of 2 W sales. I think one should monitor for some more time and take a call

      No, I won’t be attending the AGM.

      Regards,
      Ayush

    • Nasirul Amin

      Please write the at least Muthoot Capital. I almost got into MCS Ltd a penny stock. A penny stock.

      • rev

        Sorry about that.

  • Nasirul Amin

    Ayush Bhai! I have a small position in Bhageria Dye apart from Dynemic Products. Three chemical companies Bhageria, Bodal, Shree Hari started declaring a sky high profits due sudden spike in chemical prices like H Acid & LAB etc on issues with Chinese companies.

    Do you have any concern on Bhageria? My position is very small (1000 shares) & won’t mind loosing 100% of it. Please outline any concern. Thanks a lot!!

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      The businesses these cos are operating in are highly competitive and cyclical businesses. As of now the situation for them is extremely good….so enjoy till then.

      The problem is that the reversal in the boom can be sudden and it would be tough to know when the fortunes have changed.

      • Kiran Kumar

        Hi Ayush,
        I think Pratyush is holding Shree Hari chemical, any updated view will put me in comfortable position to buy.

        • Ayush

          Hi Kiran,

          We do hold some but its a small exposure. Like we mentioned above, the current times have been extremely good for the industry but its really tough to say as to how long good times will last.

          • Kiran Kumar

            Hi Ayush,

            Wondering if Oriental Carbon is better bet than Adi Finechem. Heard that Adi Finechem is aggressively increasing the capacity. Kindly provide insights to compare these two.

          • Ayush

            Hi Kiran,

            As I’m not invested in ADI as of now so I may be not the best person to comment.

            I like OCCL for its steady nos, leadership position and balance sheet getting stronger and better. It may grow faster once the Mundra expansion is done.

          • Kiran Kumar

            Thanks Ayush, I respect your views.

          • Sachidananda

            Hi Ayush, Any stock which seems interesting to you at CMP? Am a bit worried with all hidden gems running way beyond fundamentals now…therefore this query.

  • kumar

    Hi Ayush,

    results of technocraft looks down any update on technocracy ?

    • Ayush

      The nos look ok. I don’t think one should be doing very strict quarter on quarter comparisions.

      • kumar

        Thanks Ayush.

  • Rajeev

    Hi Ayush Sir
    whats your view on Technocraft Industries at this level around 170.
    thnx
    Rajeev

    • Ayush

      Though the nos look a bit below expectations but given the price, the stock looks ok. Will like to hold on.

  • kumar

    Hi, Ayush,

    Fantastic results by Anuh pharma, should be rerated further ! any comment on results and future prospects of Anuh pharma ?

    • Ayush

      Yes, results are good. We continue to hold

      • kumar

        Thanks Ayush !

  • Muthukumar

    Hi Ayush,

    Please share your views on Rossel India and Can Fin Homes (At current valuations and have done the home work AR reading and understanding of these business).

    Waiting again for the blog update with the happenings and new learning from that. Thanks again for the great support.

    -Muthu

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      Not tracking Rossel. Canfin looks good.

  • Deepen

    Hi Ayush,
    Firstly appreciate your pointers on how to analyze a company. I’ve been following your blog since a while now and its a great learning resource. Keep up the good work.
    I wanted to understand you point of view on following businesses :
    1) Ajit Pulp – Profits have been down QoQ for June, Extremely low BV & PE
    2) Saregama India – Future prospects. Numbers have been stagnant since couple of yrs.
    3) Hindustan Media Ventures – Consistent Growth
    4) Freshtrop Fruits – It has run up like anything. With it being seasonal business, there is always a short term risk.
    5) Canfin Homes – Significant drop in price in last few weeks. I am assuming Right Issue might have some impact on that. Fundamentals look intact.
    Thanks a lot.

    • Ayush

      Hi Deepen,

      The nos of Shree Ajit are not good and one should avoid till there is clarity behind the weak performance. We don’t track Saregama and HMVL. Freshtrop has posted good nos and its good to see the fruit processing segment finally doing better….we continue to hold. Canfin looks good….and the correction seems normal.

      • Deepen

        Thanks Ayush.. Appreciate the pointers..

  • Puneet Tandon

    Hey Ayush,
    Do you track Kesar Terminals and Arrow Coated ? if yes, pls share your views.

    Also ws hoping to see a blog update, as it has been quite a while.

    thanks,
    Puneet

    • Ayush

      Hi Puneet,

      Don’t track both the cos closely.

  • Mukul Kumar

    i noticed you have exited VST Tillers,
    is that temporaray based on price or you have changed your opinion about the company thanks a lot

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      We exited as we felt that the valuations were rich and also wanted to safeguard the profits. The co seems to be doing well and has good prospects.

  • Sreedhar

    Hi Ayush,
    This is Sreedhar. I am new to this blog (joined today only) and highly appreciate your ideas on stocks. What is your twitter account name and how to follow you on twitter? Also, can you kindly share your email id please?

  • Suraj

    Hi Ayush,

    One of the companies which I feel fits well into Lynch’s Asset play is Pudumjee Mills. It’s in Pune and due to expansion the mill is really in the heart of one of the fastest developing/developed area in Pune – near Wakad, Pimple Saudagar.
    The company had excess land and have built apartment flats in partnership with builder, on 22 acre land I think. # flats = 796. All flats are 2/3 BHK. Company is priced at 57 cr right now and I feel the land price (other than the real estate) and the real estate part is at least around 250-300 Cr. Are you tracking this? Can you please share your thoughts?

    • Ayush

      Hi Suraj,

      I’m not tracking the same. But yes, I have also heard about the possible value unlocking once the real estate projects start.

      On the negative, one has to consider as to how much of this value would be shown in the listed entity and be shared with minority. Also, how long will it take?

      • Suraj

        Hi Ayush,

        Thanks for reply.

        True, its difficult to guess, whether it will be shared with minority or not and how much will be shared in the listed. Its also complicated as well, as they have couple of listed entities- Pudumjee Milss and Pudumjee Ind I think.

        Regarding real estate project, I think it’s near completion and might have been majorly sold out. Link – http://www.greenspune.com/

  • Shiva

    Hi Ayush,

    This is regarding SCREENER. The Stock vs. Index chart is dated and showing JUl12-Sep13 comparison. Please update the same. Thanks

    • Hi Shiva,

      The charts are directly linked from the BSE exchange website. We can do little about fixing the charts in this case.

      In future we will try to process the charts at our own end.

  • sahil

    hi ayush
    i am a shareholder of PCJ and it’s agm is going to be held on 13th sept. Can u tell me who all can attend the AGM of a company and also about the procedure, documents required and other things that are important to attend AGM. I have only 120 shares of company, do i fullfill the criteria to attend this AGM.

    • Ayush

      Hi Sahil,

      Yes, you would be very much entitled to attend the AGM. You might have received the annual report of the co….all the AGM details are there at the end of the report.

  • raj13302 .

    Hello Ayush,

    Pls share your views on Suven Life Science. I have seen their nos. on Screener and it looks impressive. They are into CRAMS and Neuroscience (CNS) and spends good amt on R&D. Any risks/negative side and growth prospect can u specify. CEO mentions about 30% growth & 35% margin for FY15.PE is around 10, Mcap 1500 cr. I am invested in Suven.

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      I haven’t done much work but keep good things about it.

  • Shiva

    Hi Ayush,

    Since this is AGMs time, request you to update ur observations from the ones which you attended . Like u did last year. Thanks

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  • anshah

    hi

  • malthankar

    Hi Ayush,

    I was searching Anuh pharma annual report but could not find as 12 Sep was AGM. do you have annual report for 2014?

  • V P Singh

    Hi Ayush,

    Trust me you are really doing a great social job.

    I would request you to give your insights on these companies , whenever you have time.

    1- Anuh Pharma : Everything looks good about this company, If i have understood the latest AR, to me there is no any planned Capex, what is your view on the company’s growth ?

    2- Adi Fine Chemicals: I found this company interesting though looks expensive rt now>> but the recent capacity expansion will cover this, Whats you view ?

    3- Vinati Organics: Need your view.

    Many thanks, and waiting for your valuable suggestions.

    My regards
    Vijay

    • Ayush

      Hi Vijay,

      As per recent SEBI circular there are lot of restrictions on blogs now. So I’m afraid I can’t write much till there is more clarity.

      In regard to your above queries….my response in brief:

      1. Anuh – Yeah, there is not much clarity on the growth going forward. However, the co has given a positive msg by giving a first interim dividend….so will like to wait and see how things unfold going forward.

      2. ADI – Not tracking closely

      3. Vinati – not tracking.

      Regards,
      Ayush

  • SHON

    HI Ayush…I am new to thins and looking at learning stock valutions to find undervalued gems…any pointers from you how should i go about it?

    • Ayush

      Hi,

      Plz visit websites like safalniveshak.com and valuepickr.com.