Avanti Feeds: MPEDA announcements

We were lucky to get the understanding of the change in the fortune of the shrimp industry and to spot Avanti Feeds at a very early stage. Since then we have been providing regular updates.

It has been one of the dream performance over the last 2-3 years – the company’s revenue have grown at a CAGR of 88% over last 3 years, and the stock returns have also been fabulous.

Over last few days, there have been reports of reporting of EMS disease in the Indian Shrimp industry. The EMS has been confirmed and as a preventive measure, MPEDA has decided to halt fresh production for next 2-3 months. Though it is a short term negative development for the industry, few positives to note are: 1. The EMS reported is in very small portion of the sample (just 1%) 2. As December to February is a lean period for the industry hence the damage will be limited and if the preventive steps are properly undertaken then the industry can quickly come out of the problem. MPEDA has provided a detailed clarification.

As a caution, we have chosen to book profits and reduce the exposure, and monitor how things develop going forward.

Among the new ideas, we are currently studying: APM Industries, KCP Sugar, Kitex Garments and Muthoot Capital. We hope to discuss the latest quarterly results and a detailed analysis in the next article.

  • sarath

    sir what about lotus eye care

    • Ayush

      Sorry, not tracking the same

  • ankita

    where to get these type of news that affects stock prices in our portfolio, i notice that even moneycontrol does not reflect news on a particular day wen a stock is too much high or low?

    • Hi, we do a couple of following things:

      1. Add the stocks in the watchlist on screener.in. It automatically sends the new company announcements and a notification for their upcoming results.

      2. We keep a track of articles on http://www.valuepickr.com and http://www.screener.in/talks/ . As multiple stock enthusiasts share their favorite articles, it introduces us to various unknown industry resources and websites.

      3. For the stocks forming part of our core portfolio, we set Google Alerts for few related terms. Additionally we subscribe to blogs and related newsletters.

      Hope that helps.

      • Nasirul Amin

        Thanks Pratyush! I love screener and discovered Suven, Vinati Organics, HGS and many other undervalued short term picks as well apart from long term ones.

  • Aravind Boddupalli

    Shall be thankful if you could share your coveted opinion on Granules India Ltd. I am expecting it to be another Ajanta Pharma in the making.

    • Ayush

      Hi Aravind,

      We are not tracking Granules and hence won’t be able to comment.

  • Roberto el S

    hi Ayush,

    Do you still track CCL Products? Is it a direct play on coffee prices?

    Regards,
    Roberto el S

    • Ayush

      Sorry, we don’t track CCL Products.

  • DeepakkumarPrasad

    Hi Ayush,

    Is PCA the only reason behind Simarn Farms bas performance. The financial numbers looks good though

    – Deepak

    • Ayush

      THough it looks cheap on statistical parameters but the problem seems to be wafer thin margins….due to which there is lot of volatility in earnings.

      • DeepakkumarPrasad

        Thanks Ayush. Should Venkys be preferred instead

        • Ayush

          Venkys is a bigger and established player. You may like to research on it. As we are not tracking…can’t give views.

  • Praveen

    Hi Ayush Whats your view on AK.Capital @ CMP ?

    • Ayush

      Sorry, not tracking

  • DeepakkumarPrasad

    If I go by intrinsic value Pfizer looks very attractive. Do you guys thinks its worth considering.

    • Ayush

      Not tracking the same.

  • mub

    any reason for exiting kaveri. It does seem to be doing good ?

    • Ayush

      Yes, the co has been doing well and the feedback is great. However, we couldn’t get mental comfort on the quality of balance sheet as taxation is not there….hence the exit.

      • mub

        thanks ayush for your comments. You are churning good ideas at an astonishing rate. Do you look for discount to book value or high growth. Would like to learn ur thought process when you pick out your ideas…thx

        • Ayush

          Its a mix of both. Most of the times we go for cos operating in niche area, with a good past track record yet available at reasonable valuations…while often we also go for statistically cheap stocks….based on Graham methodology.

          Ayush

  • abhay

    Ayush, I follow your picks actively, I think Mayur has become quite expensive at current price, what do you think entry at current price?

    • Ayush

      Mayur is a very good co. But as the multiple is already 15+, don’t think there is lot of safety at these prices for fresh entry. However, if your investment is for very long term…then you may buy some and try to average down on sharp declines, if any.

  • Nishant

    With 90% of patented drugs going off patent in the next few years there is a huge scope for India centric Pharma companies who can tackle the huge US market. With this picture in mind, do you think Pharmaceuticals will lead the next bull market rally in coming years? Lot of people are also betting huge on rural finance as one of the upcoming sector, what is your take on this?

    • Ayush

      We usually follow bottoms up approach – i.e.. we go company specific. Yes, pharma sector seems to have a lot of potential and we are invested in Alembic Pharma, Shilpa Medicare, Ajanta Pharma, Paushak.

      • Nishant

        what is your opinion about Natco Pharma and Indoco Remedies? Is it advisable to enter at CMP in Ajanta or Alembic?

        thanks!

        • Ayush

          Natco is a very interesting co and looks good for long term investing. Alembic also looks good for next 2-3 years.

  • Samir

    Hi Ayush,
    Mid & small caps have run up quite a lot recently. Is it a good time to book some profits? Do you expect market-wide corrections or not?

    • Ayush

      Yes, mid caps and small caps have done very well….if one has been fully invested, then it may be good to review portfolio and look at non-core ideas and build some liquidity.

      For longer term perspective, we are still very positive and feel its futile to time the market. Rather one should focus on the quality of the co one is investing into.

      • Samir

        Are you selling anything?? If yes, what?

        • Samir

          and what’s ur current cash %age?
          And where do you plan to take it? If you don’t mind sharing.
          Thanks

          • Ayush

            As of now we are almost fully invested. I don’t think we would like to raise cash levels beyond 10-15%.

            Instead of sitting on cash, we get into defensive stock ideas which are giving high div yield and available at attractive P/BV and PE ratios.

        • Ayush

          Sold some Avanti, sold Apcotex, Astra zeneca etc – http://performance.dalal-street.in/changes/

  • Sandesh

    Hi Ayush and Pratyush,
    The Dec quarter results of Avanti looks very good considering this quarter is generally not very impressive for Shrimp business. Hope to see good jump in the stock on Monday opening.
    The 3 quarter EPS has already double than the last whole year’s EPS. Dec quarter EPS is more than last quarter and many fold than the last year’s december quarter.
    – Sandesh

    • Ayush

      Yes, the Q3 results are fantastic and have beaten the expectations by a wide margin. Yes, the stock should do well.

  • jitendra

    What is your opinion about Nilkamal Plastics @CMP 224.00?

    • Ayush

      Not, tracking it.

  • Rakesh Ranjan

    Hi Ayush
    what is your view on Muthoot Capital after recent Q results .Do you still see it turning around on bottomline ?

    • Ayush

      Hi Rakesh,

      I’m still hopewell of the co delivering on the growth…will like to watch out for a qtr or two.

      • Rakesh Ranjan

        Thank you Ayush